Happ's Houston debut a gem as Astros down punchless Brewers
Baseball Betting Lines
07/30/2010 - Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - J.A. Happ pitched six scoreless innings in his Houston debut, as the Astros handled the Milwaukee Brewers, 5-0, in the opener of a three-game series at Minute Maid Park.
Happ (2-0) and minor leaguers Jonathan Villar and Anthony Gose were acquired by Houston from the Phillies on Thursday in exchange for workhorse starter Roy Oswalt. Happ gave up just two hits, struck out six, and walked four to take the win.
Jason Michaels, Chris Johnson and Jeff Keppinger homered for the Astros, who have won three in a row.
Manny Parra (3-8) went 5 1/3 innings in the start, allowing four runs on four hits for the Brewers, who have dropped three in a row. He also fanned six batters and walked three to drop his third straight decision.
The Brewers failed to score off Happ after putting men on first and second. Rickie Weeks doubled to begin the game and Corey Hart walked. Happ, though, retired the next three batters in order to end the threat.
Michaels' solo blast in the second would prove to be all the runs Houston would need.
After Milwaukee stranded men on first and second in the top of the fourth, the Astros put a three-spot on the board in the home half. With two outs, Michaels walked and Pedro Feliz singled. Johnson then smacked a three-run homer over the wall in right for a 4-0 advantage.
Keppinger's solo homer off the left-field foul pole in the eighth made it a 5-0 game.
Wilton Lopez, Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom combined to pitch a scoreless seventh, eighth and ninth, respectively, for Houston.
Game Notes
The Astros lead the season series with the Brewers, 4-3...Following the trade on Thursday, the Astros then made a second deal, sending Gose to Toronto for minor league first baseman Brett Wallace...Johnson extended his hitting streak to 13 games, the longest by a Houston rookie since Julio Lugo's 14-game run in 2000...Hart went 0-for-3 with a walk in his return to the lineup. He played for the first time in six games after missing time due to a sore right thumb and wrist...Milwaukee started a six-game road trip on Friday...The New York Yankees are reportedly set to acquire Lance Berkman from the Astros. Berkman was not in the starting lineup for Houston on Friday...Oswalt made his Philadelphia debut on Friday against the Nationals. The right-hander allowed five runs -- four earned -- on seven hits and walked two in six innings to absorb his third straight loss.
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Fenway
Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value
If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture. Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).
For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot. The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.
TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.
"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,' it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."
"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.
Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash. Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win.
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
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